Continued thinking about the future may also allow Israel to identify potential opportunities earlier and to take the necessary steps to seize them, thereby increasing the likelihood that they can be realized. Serious preparation for the future demands that Israel remain flexible and attentive to anticipate possible inflection points, devise options to cope with their consequences, and mitigate the risks of high-impact scenarios even if it is difficult to determine their likelihood. However, MbSs camp emerges victorious fairly quickly from the power struggle that ensued, and his younger brother, Deputy Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman (KbS), assumes the throne. August 2019. https://www.unicef.org/mena/sites/unicef.org.mena/files/2019-08/MENA%20. Organisation for Economic, MOPAN Multilateral Organisation Performance Assessment Network, Ensuring a strong, inclusive and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Israel. While it is true that populism emerged in Latin America, its appeal to those left behind by globalization proved to be global in nature, including unexpectedly though perhaps more importantly in the U.S. Middle East Economies: Dim Light at the End of the Tunnel. Institute for National Security Studies. Europe is targeting 40 percent. BEIJING Israel aspires to become the world's 15th largest economy by 2025, Economy and Industry Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday, arguing that Israel's power depends on its economic growth . Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. Senior economic officials in Israel were quick to . Please contact us in case of abuse. Report: Bank officials believe $4 billion moved out of Israel in recent weeks. Israel destroys Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. The global economic crisis drags on long after the COVID-19 health crisis abates, and so energy prices remain depressed and the economies of the Middle East are hard hit, including the wealthy Gulf states. June 19, 2018. Washington slightly reduces its military presence in the region but still maintains significant forces in the Gulf, and to a lesser extent in Iraq and Syria. Jul 7, 2020. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/e. What we determined as the most important and persistent trends to consider, which appear poised to influence the Middle East over the next decade, are: a) The Decline of Unipolarity: The results of this ongoing global transition from unipolarity to a bipolar (U.S.-China) or multipolar (U.S.-China-Russia) world will include: growing challenges to the existing international system;21 intensification of great power competition and its projection into the MENA region;22 U.S. efforts to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East in favor of the Pivot to Asia; an expanded Chinese footprint around the globe (mainly through commerce and infrastructure projects); and Russian attempts to reestablish itself as a powerbroker in the region. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9 (1). It grew faster than the Eurozone average, as well as the US, Canada, and Australia. Since the start of the crisis in early 2020, economic institutions have frequently updated their forecasts based on projected energy use and the global economic recovery.19 Political, military, and social aspects of regional dynamics in the Middle East remain volatile. Renewable Energy After the price collapse in April 2020, petrostates will find themselves dependent on a volatile (at best) oil market that will prove the determining factor for whether or not they will be able to balance their annual budget. Oded Eran. Rising Russian and Chinese influence in Egypt pushes Israel to maintain limited coordination with both on key national security issues such as Gaza and the Red Sea. 19. In 2022, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his unexpected succession by Hassan Rouhani allow for a new interim agreement: the U.S. is to lift some sanctions, while Iran freezes its nuclear program and reduces its malign activity in the region. According to IMF estimates, the unemployment rate will decrease further to 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as interesting research 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. As a result, several of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisis megaprojects are cancelled and Egypts connection to the other members of the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain) erodes. Joseph S. Nye Jr. Peering into the Future. Foreign Affairs. He received his BA in Middle Eastern Studies from Princeton University and his MA from Tel Aviv University. Road Less Traveled: Different Methods, Different Futures. Journal of Future Studies. However, without political maneuvers to consolidate those gains, they could prove to be short-lived and take on considerable risk for a multi-front crisis. 34. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. Total exports of natural gas from Israel in 2021 increased by 68% compared to 2020. Moscows standing in the region is severely undermined when the U.S. convinces President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to cancel the lease of military bases to Russia and send uniformed Iranian forces home. Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. OECD. While the Muslim Brotherhoods Islamist wave appears to be on the ebb since President Mohamed Morsis overthrow in 2013, it is possible that some other form of radical Islam or even some altogether different radical ideological current will rise. Brun Itai. July 1994. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1994-07-01/peering-future. Mapping the Global Future,12 which was published in 2004 as part of the 2020 Project by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), was used as a case study. The list of potential gamechangers includes developments such as: leadership changes within existing regimes, shifting partnerships/rivalries, internal upheavals leading to regime change, military interventions by global/regional powers into crises, the end of military conflicts and the terms of their conclusion, the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a state or states that did not previously possess them, dramatic technological developments that shift the balance of economic or military power, and natural disasters that inflict major human or infrastructural losses. In 2004, given the deep U.S. involvement in two wars in the Middle East and the then-recent experience of the 9/11 attacks, the NIC report described political Islam as having significant global impact. While there can be little doubt that more radical currents of Islam maintain some continued impact, their lack of broader appeal to either populations or states make them negligible factors in the context of the global order. Huseyin Emre Ceyhun. Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures, IV. In case of abuse. Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time. Accelerating changes in recent years, including massive increases in the amount, variety, and tempo of information available, the rate of technological advances, climate change, and the interconnectivity and interdependencies between distant geographical locations further increase the level of uncertainty regarding the future. Daniel Rakov is a research fellow at the INSS. Russia completes construction of a naval and air bases in Sudan and gradually increases its permanent Red Sea flotilla. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars opinions are their own. It appears as though the bomb was developed within the framework of a covert project funded by Riyadh. December 2004. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Glo. 3. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. March 7, 2023 29:06 Ron. The IDF's 23rd Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, will need to safely and swiftly maneuver through a domestic minefield without entangling the military in politics. Doing so helps ensure against missing potentially important implications that the scenario developers can overlook if they are too close to the subject matter. Brun Itai, Intelligence Analysis: Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes.. Russia, through its security services and military contractors, cooperates with Egypt in Libya and other areas of interest. Learning from the best practices of those who have done work in this vein before us, we concluded that it would be foolhardy to try to calculate the likelihood of any particular event or scenario. Any errors in this work are the authors alone. Despite Irans provocative activities in the conventional realm, it puts its nuclear ambitions on hold temporarily to avoid unintentionally inviting an airstrike by the U.S. or Israel. Beyond the distinct methods, it is also worth keeping in mind that different vantage points will produce different scenarios. In addition, the regional economies will face considerable challenges in recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which inflicted severe damage on key industries. September 7, 2019. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/rising-sea-levels-threaten-egypt-. 12. Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa Hannah Kosow and Robert Gassner. Avi Hasson: I want to add a purely economic, practical, and instrumental view to this. For example, the NICs 2004 report notes that one uncertainty for the future is the Extent to which [Internet] connectivity challenges governments. It is now clear that despite the short period in which social media exclusively enabled the public to organize against regimes, the connectedness and smartness of daily life from iPhones to cashless payment to apps has since evolved into a force multiplier that on balance favors totalitarian governments. This scenario depicts how making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition. July 20, 2020. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/covid-19-information-and-. Daniel Rakov, Economic distress as a result of low oil prices leads to public unrest and violent repression of opposition voices throughout the region, especially in Algeria, Egypt, and Iraq. The COVID-19 crisis and environmental problems are not necessarily the decisive factors in the regions economy, but they will likely add economic pressures on states and expand existing socio-economic gaps. Due to U.S. and UAE pressure, Israel assents to Mohammed Dahlans assumption of control over the Palestinian Authority (PA) after Mahmoud Abbass death in 2023. Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce interesting research. Science Direct. 22. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by other Middle Eastern countries might not be initiated by Iran, could occur suddenly, and may involve several new actors almost in parallel. For a listing of MEI donors, please clickhere. But scenarios built only around such an assumption pay insufficient attention to any number of factors that are more representative of continuity and are potentially just as impactful as that which is changing. 18. Israel strikes thousands of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but suffers significant damage to its own infrastructure from precision missile strikes. Israel has today 10.4 percent of its workforce working in high-tech. Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time., Drawing up different scenarios has been described by Brig. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The current inflation should prompt the Bank of Israel to impose rate hikes. Reports show an 8.6% growth in 2021 when Israel was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic but with inflation at an all time high, it is expected to hit 5.1% by the end of 2022. From the American perspective, putting too much emphasis on great power competition could backfire on its other important regional assets. This scenario demonstrates that a great power vacuum and resulting deterioration of the regional order could be accompanied by opportunities for Israel to diminish significant military threats at a lower cost. Order from Chaos Middle East Demographics of 2030. The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. The economy is among the fastest-growing in the industrialized world. The U.S. and the EU are not involved in the process. Although the Iranian presence in Syria is initially reduced, it is gradually reconstituted in the years that followed and Israel found itself unable to militarily intervene in order to prevent that. Future Potential of the Israel Economy Whether you're looking for a great investment market or trying to better understand local economies, you should keep your eye on the Israel economy. He is currently a consultant to several ministries. d) Proliferation of Dangerous Technologies: The unraveling of arms control agreements increases the risk of nuclear proliferation,23 while the largely unregulated proliferation of precision-guided munitions has enabled the emergence of strategic non-nuclear threats in the region. #israel #economyofisrael #geopolitics What is the economic future of Israel? Due to U.S. pressure, Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, and Egypt are pushed into starting construction on a network of gas pipelines to Turkey, from where the gas will then be transported to Europe. COVID-19, Information, and the Deep Structure of the International System. The Cipher Brief. October 2019. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/907071571420642349/HCP-MiddleEast-Plan-. This timing, in addition to the social and economic crises ripping through Lebanon, is identified by Israel as an opportunity to take military action to degrade Hezbollahs military capabilities and the Iranian nuclear project. Only 7 percent of local energy production last year came from alternative sources, mainly solar, and Israel's future targets are modest compared to Europe's: The government is aiming for just 30 percent of all energy to come from renewables by the end of the decade. Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for Turkeys dam-building program could generate fresh conflict in the Middle East. ASPI. 20. Thursday, March 26, 2020, Get foreign policy updates from Brookings, Tiomkin School of Economics at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu, Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa, Forum on the future of the Federal Home Loan Bank system: Highlights, The American Rescue Plan, two years later: Analyzing local governments efforts at equitable, transformative change. Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a Senior Research Fellow at the INSS, specializing in Gulf politics and security. Connor Dilleen. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economy's strengths and weakness,. The Israeli labour market is tight, with a low unemployment rate (3.9% in 2022) and employment above pre-crisis levels, so that the vacancy rate has stabilised at a historically high level towards the end of the year. Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. In . Accessed February 18, 2021. https://fragilestatesindex.org. Yoel Guzansky. 13. As part of this process, Iran agrees to the full integration of Shia militias into Iraqs armed forces, though Tehran retains considerable indirect levers of influence in the country. August 21, 2019. https://dayan.org/content/middle-east-demographics-2030. Through the reduction of security cooperation and freezing of military aid, Washington (unsuccessfully) seeks to pressure Cairo to roll back relations with its great power rivals. The aim of examining futures of the past is certainly not to point out what some might view as errors. Israel is back on the brink Andrew Curry and Wendy Schultz. However, it soon becomes apparent that the new government retains the ancien rgimes hegemonic ambitions. Jonas Svava Iversen. Throughout the years 2026-27, Turkey and the Gulf states take steps to undermine the success of the new nuclear deal due to Irans continued meddling in the region. January 4, 2021. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/climate-change-and-national-securit. For example, the NIC correctly noted that globalization could lead to the rise of populism and pointed to Latin America as the likely place for that to emerge. November 5, 2019. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/turkeys-dam-building-program-could-ge. Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for the range of possible futures. The Gulf monarchies increasing repression of their minority and dissident populations remains a major point of contention between Washington and its Arab allies. They are intended to highlight the reality that over the course of the next decade Israels strategic environment could undergo fundamental changes. Middle East Institute Lastly, the latest statement shows that the Oman central bank is set to raise the repo rate by 50 bps. Without reforms to increase the productivity growth rate, Israels relative GDP per capita is expected to deteriorate. This variable is strongly correlated with (a) the future of competition between the great powers, (b) rivalry among regional powers in MENA, (c) counter-terrorism, and (d) nuclear proliferation. Jerusalem: Falk Project for Economic Research in Israel, 1960. U.S. 24. Changes in the dynamics of great power competition in the Middle East might bring about significant changes in the structure of regional camps, which will not necessarily prove helpful for advancing Israels core national security interests. How Israel fares in this realm will depend on investment in formalized long-term planning mechanisms, vesting them with authority, and ensuring that the decisionmakers at various levels allocate a significant portion of their time to planning for a range of potential alternative futures. The further one seeks to gaze into the future, the less useful forecast techniques become. After several months of fierce clashes a reconciliation process is initiated under the auspices of the African Union, Russia, and China. Please try again or choose an option below. A goal, according to Israel Export Institute chairperson Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin, is to connect the economy of the Eastern Mediterranean - Israel, Greece, Egypt, and Turkey - with the economy of the Western Mediterranean - Morocco. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was predicted for 2023 despite boosts in the economy through higher consumer. March 2, 2020. https://www.wita.org/atp-research/the-rules-based-multilateral-order-a-. Second, when thinking about the future, it is important to consider the duality of developments. Cairo declares that it is the first Arab country to attain a nuclear weapons capability, and it has done so due to a growing need for self-reliance in deterring Iranian aggression and ensuring continued access to vital water supplies in light of tensions with Sudan and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Even the achievement of optimistic employment goals among sectors with currently low participation rates will not prevent a drop in GDP growth to a historically low level of only 2.3% per year. Before presenting four scenarios for how the future of the Middle East might develop, it is worth considering how others had thought about the present (2020) when it was still the future. The poverty rate is projected to decline to 26.7% in 2022, and then to further gradually decrease to 26.1% by 2024. According to Reuters, the Saudi inflation rate has eased since November and is currently at 2.9%. 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